April 5, 2007

SINGAPORE

The Calm Before the Storm: University and the Middle East

Having made it through the final round of assignments and tests, I have a two week lull before end-of-term examinations rear their ugly head. Maybe "lull" is the wrong word to use because examination scores are determined by how little I lull around, but that is beside the point.

On to more important matters, and they focus on the Middle East.

Last time I published, the Iranian seizure of 15 British sailors was beginning to make its way into world news. As of today, those sailors are being released and flown home to England. The British should be commended for doing an excellent job in defusing the situation. Rightly or wrongly, if it had been American sailors, Bush would have declared their seizure an act of war (remember: Iran is the strongest member of his infamous "Axis of Evil"), and God only knows where we would be right now. Well done in keeping your cool, Mr. Blair.

In other Middle Eastern news, the United States is moving its second aircraft carrier into the Gulf. Without any possibility of an air strike in Iraq, I have a hard time imagining what constructive purpose a second aircraft carrier is serving. Such war preparations are more of an infringement on Iranian security than the 15 sailors doing peacekeeping chores because a pre-emptive strike can be launched with one aircraft carrier, much less two - not to mention the accompanying cruisers, destroyers, battleships, and submarines that comprise a fleet.

In parallel to my earlier analogy with Cuba, positioning two aircraft carriers and their accompanying entourage in the Gulf is sending the same message to Iran as the Soviet Union's positioning of nuclear missiles in Cuba sent to the United States. And that message is not a good one.

It only recently dawned on me that all the wars fought in my life time have taken place in the Middle East. Now that I am 21, this reality takes on a whole new significance.

Fearing a breakout of hostilities, I wrote an email to the Iranian friends I made this semester, and several days ago we sat down to talk about the strained relationship between the United States and Iran. I will try to recount the conversation when I have the time, but it was revealing to hear their candid thoughts.

The following is a quick rundown of the maneuvering going on behind recent developments...

Iran has showed no signs of slowing down its nuclear program while both the Russians and Chinese (who have extensive energy ties with Iran) are refusing to allow the United Nations Security Council to impose forceful sanctions.

If the United Nations cannot act in an effective manner, then other nations will not jeopardize their security by remaining dormant - Israel in particular.

Everyone knows that Israel and Palestine went to war last summer. What many people aren’t aware of is that Iran supplied the terrorist organization Hamas (who led the war against Israel) with advanced weaponry that was used to attack the Israeli navy. Such brazen interference landed Iran high on the list of countries supporting of terrorism.

This interference on the part of Iran, and subsequent threats by Iran, has Israel afraid that Iran will supply Hamas with more than just heavy artillery and advanced weaponry in the future, but with nuclear weapons. Read this last post if you think Iran is not serious about resorting to nuclear force to "wipe Israel off the map."

It is entirely plausible that the United States and Israel are preparing to launch a pre-emptive strike on the nuclear facilities in Shiraz should Iran continue with its nuclear development. The repercussions will be severe as Iran has established itself as the vanguard of the Islamic world.

However severe the repercussions of a pre-emptive attack, the fact remains that Israel takes its security serious. And President Bush already views Iran a part of the not-so-holy-trinity ("Axis of Evil"). Having tried diplomacy with North Korea and been rewarded with the testing of a nuclear weapon, will President Bush wait and hope for the best with Iran or will he try a more forceful approach? More importantly, what will Israel do?