The Beijing Olympics Are More Uncertain Than Ever

Over the past couple of years there have been numerous reports detailing Beijing's progress in its Olympics preparation, but that has all changed over the past couple of months. News on the preparatory efforts have dried up. Granted, Beijing is notoriously tight-lipped about its progress, reflecting a tendency to unveil massive projects when they are at (or very near) completion. However, it is strange that the government is not reassuring the world that everything is on schedule; it would be the first positive news about China in a long while.

As far as the preparatory efforts, there are two major components: making the necessary social adjustments and building sufficient infrastructure.

As for the former, there is a universal belief that people (on both sides) will be in for a massive cultural shock. Efforts are being made to improve the "imminently noticeable" things, like taxi drivers knowing a few words of English and keeping the city clean. This may sound simple, but it is a massive undertaking. I have visited Beijing four times over the past couple of years, and there have certainly been slight improvements, but there is an (impossibly) long way to go...

As any mother will testify, bad habits are hard to kick. Foreigners will be in for a shock with the spitting, the smoking, the pollution, and the millions of other daily tendencies that make the Chinese unique - just ask anyone who has visited China and they will ring off a dozen "only in China" stories. Likewise, exposure to people from all over the world will be mind-blowing for the Chinese populace. It is for the same reasons that I am trying to reach Beijing this August. My intent is not just to attend a sporting event (tickets are nearly impossible to obtain and I get a better view from the television), but rather to experience such a landmark event. Is there any other event that brings together so many everyday people from so many countries?

As for the the actual construction of new metro lines, sporting venues, and other necessary facilities, the earthquake has put a serious dent in Beijing's efforts. Current estimates from Xinhua (China's government-backed news agency) state that 70,000+ people are confirmed dead, 365,000+ are injured, and 15+ million people have been evacuated from the quake zones. Most of Beijing's attention has been focused on coping with the aftermath. To top this off, Sichuan (the area most affected) is China's most populous province. Consequently, many people from this region relocated to Beijing in search of better work opportunities (i.e. construction), but have since returned to their hometowns in search of their loved ones. How much of an effect does this shifting of focus have on the construction projects? Further, It does not help that the government is also fighting a publicity campaign against the many protestors advocating a boycott of the Olympics.

I have heard whispering that the earthquake has actually helped Beijing because it deflected attention away from the Tibet issue - people don't want to bash a country struck by such a horrific disaster. However, as the above paragraph should make clear, the crippling earthquake is having a more direct impact on the Olympics. Whether or not people protested, the Olympics would go forward as planned. With 100% certainty they will still go forward, but now Beijing has relinquished much of its power to control how everything will turn out.

The year 2008 was supposed to be China's coming out party. The Olympics were to be the unveiling of a "new, modern China," and with every news agency in the world centered in Beijing the world would all watch and cheer on, or so the theory went. However, with Tibetan riots, Olympic protests, Chinese animosity against "friends turned enemies," and the disastrous earthquake, this year has turned into a worst-case scenario.

There is still hope: eight is a propitious number in Chinese culture, and the start of the Olympics is 8/8/2008. Will the Olympics come through after all, and be the unifying event that brings the world together? Only time will tell, but with so much riding on the Olympics there is no place I would rather be come August.